I came across a post last night on The Daily Galaxy discussing a paper that was published last summer by David Spiegel with Princeton University and Edwin Turner with the University of Tokyo entitled, Bayesian analysis of the astrobiological implications of life’s early emergence on Earth.
PDF Download HERE.
Jeez, where to begin?
To be fair, Mr. Spiegel and Mr. Turner do not state that we are alone in the cosmos with 100% certainty. They do however imply via the Bayesian statistical framework used that our own existence does not automatically translate to a high probability of intelligent life existing elsewhere.
Umm, okay so what else is new?
Not to demean the statistical probability that among the multi-quintillion planets in the known universe, it is almost a mathematical certainty that life beyond our own exists, doesn’t common sense factor in here somewhere as the fine folks at the Daily Galaxy (love them by the way) indicate? Or does common sense have no place in science whatsoever when we focus on this topic?
Consider for a moment the seemingly lack of common sense we witness daily in policy-making in Washington. Do we really want this to apply to astronomy/cosmology/space research? Have we learned nothing at all during our time on this planet or will anthropocentrism continue to rear its’ ugly head until the end of our existence?
And more importantly (and the point of this post), why do some feel compelled to change the opinions of the rest of us with no irrefutable proof? Note that I’m not implying that this was the intent of Mr. Spiegel or Mr. Turner but rather, am asking this question within the context of this post.
Science is about the observable. Scientific methodology requires that we test theories based on observed or predicted facts. This leads to discovery. I get it…I really do.
What I don’t get is why there are those that try to convince the rest of us that extraterrestrials do or don’t exist with inconclusive or incomplete evidence. There are always going to be those that try to prove/disprove the Fermi Paradox, Drake equation, etc. Have at it! And perhaps the findings of Mr. Spiegel and Mr. Turner are valuable to some (although I fail to see how). If you want to debate whether extraterrestrials exist or don’t exist with someone, I’m your guy! But don’t try to convince me that I’m wrong about what I believe unless you have an actual E.T. to show me or you’ve personally traveled every inch of the known universe and can conclusively prove that no life is out there. In other words, stop wasting your time with studies that don’t prove a damn thing and certainly have no effect on my beliefs!
My view on this matter is that there are only two outcomes: either we will discover intelligent life beyond our own, or we as a species will die out (whichever comes first). We will never as humans unite in agreement on this matter until we prove conclusively that we are alone in the universe. And that will never happen because our planet will die long before we are able to ascertain this with 100% certainty. The universe is simply too vast. Therefore to continue trying to change each other’s mind is a waste of time is it not? Doesn’t it make more sense to continue with space exploration while increasing our knowledge of the universe instead? Only with greater understanding and knowledge can we progress toward a definitive answer on this matter. If there is intelligent life out there, perhaps we will discover it (or they will come to us) during the discovery process while finally putting an end to the incessant debate.
I have no illusion that my opinion (and this post is exactly that) will change a thing. No doubt there is at least one individual working on a paper somewhere that will contradict the findings of Mr. Speigel and Mr. Turner. But to what end? What’s the point?
Perhaps it’s time to stop wasting time trying to convince each other that we’re right or wrong – we will never all agree anyway until a definitive answer has been concluded – and instead focus our efforts on realistic objectives and achievable outcomes. Only by doing so will we ever have a chance of finding a definitive answer to the question of intelligent life beyond our own.
Of course there’s always the alternative. We can learn nothing from the past several hundred years, continue wasting time/effort with this pointless banter while marching toward extinction, all while missing the opportunity to actually discover the truth. What a tragedy that would be.
What is your opinion on this subject? Do scientists, politicians, or even religious leaders have an obligation to convince the rest of us that we are the only intelligent beings in the universe (or vice-versa)? I’d love to hear your thoughts, input, etc. Thanks for “hearing” me out on this.
Spiegel, D., & Turner, E. (2011). Bayesian analysis of the astrobiological implications of life’s early emergence on Earth Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109 (2), 395-400 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1111694108
The Daily Galaxy –Great Discoveries Channel: Sci, Space, Tech. (2012, February 23). Ignoring 500 Billion Galaxies: Mathematics vs Common Sense in the Debate About the Probability of Extraterrestrial Life. Retrieved February 24, 2012, from http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2012/02/ignoring-500-billion-galaxies-mathematics-vs-common-sense-in-the-debate-about-the-probability-of-ext.html
- Intelligent Life in the Universe (unastronomy.com)
- Carl Sagan Explains the Drake Equation (toodamnez.wordpress.com)
- Extraterrestrial Microbes Could Double the Output Of Bacteria Batteries (inhabitat.com)
- Il SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) riattivato. (xirien.wordpress.com)
- Unidentified Future Objects? (unastronomy.com)
- Finding frugal aliens: ‘Benford beacons’ concept could refocus search for intelligent extraterrestrial life (physorg.com)
- The Learning Network Blog: Lesson Plan | Is Anyone Out There? Examining Astrobiology and the Value of SETI (learning.blogs.nytimes.com)
- The extraterrestrials have made contact, and they call themselves the Hungarians: tacit knowledge (johngaynardcreativity.blogspot.com)
- Quasicrystal is extraterrestrial in origin (physorg.com)
- Are alien probes hiding in vast space? (futurity.org)
Image Credit: roflposters.com